Gold’s rally took another upturn on Tuesday, as it surpassed US$2,000 per ounce.
By midday, spot gold had hit US$2,009.20 per oz., and at press time in Toronto had reached US$2,019.40 per ounce.
Bullion has surged more than 30% this year to a record high and is one of the best-performing assets in 2020 as a result of increased safe-haven demand during the coronavirus pandemic.
Investors are driven by the belief that the metal will hold its value better than other assets as fallout from Covid-19 ripples through the global economy.
In the U.S., the world’s largest economy, central bank stimulus has pushed inflation-adjusted bond yields to record lows, making non-yielding gold more attractive. The dollar has also weakened sharply, making bullion cheaper for buyers with other currencies.
“The never-before-reached US$2,000 per oz. is a major psychological resistance level, with gold’s 49-year trend channel resting just below it at US$1,983,” said Commerzbank technical analyst Karen Jones.
“Only an end-of-month or, better yet, end-of-quarter close above these levels will signal a break from the channel,” she said.
However, because the rally has been so fast, some analysts said, a downward correction is likely and could be brutal, before the market attempts another stab higher.
Early support is coming in around its 20-day moving average at US$1,875 per oz. and the bottom of its four-month uptrend around US$1,830 per ounce.
“Below that is more powerful support at the 20-week moving average, currently at US$1,755,” said Tom Pelc, an independent technical analyst, formerly of Nomura and RBS.
Such a fall would not necessarily equate doom to the long-term uptrend, analysts posited.
“We continue to see this improving volatility backdrop, so there’s no sign that the long-term trend is changing,” said Richard Adcock, a former analyst at UBS and now independent technical analyst. “The market can carry on higher than people expect.”
If resistance is broken, Fibonacci extensions offer short-term targets. These are based on the idea that a rally will extend in predictable proportions extrapolated from a previous rally.
“One is at US$2,067, another comes in at US$2,286,” said Pelc.
“Lucas ratios — a tool using a sequence of numbers similar to Fibonacci’s — suggest gold could rise to $3,598.80 an ounce in 4-5 years,” he added.