New York-based ARK Investment Management forecasts sales of electric vehicles will reach 37 million units in 2024.
ARK, which focuses on disruptive technologies, said EV sales in 2019 hit about 2 million units, up from 1.45 million units in 2018.
“EV sales are expected to grow significantly during the next five years,” ARK says in a research report, despite “an estimated 3.1 million drop in total auto sales worldwide” last year.
While sales growth “could be lumpy as factories build to scale,” it “should be robust over time as EV adoption gains traction,” ARK predicted.
In addition, the cost of battery cells for EVs will continue to fall.
“According to Wright’s Law, for every cumulative doubling of units produced, battery cell costs will fall by 18%,” the report states. “These cost declines are critical to reaching price parity with gas-powered vehicles, as the largest cost component of an EV is its battery.”
The report also noted that EVs with a 250-mile range are nearing price parity with gas-powered cars and will be cheaper starting from 2022 (US$24,000 for an EV versus US$25,000 for a conventional car).
By 2024, the sticker price for an EV will fall to around US$17,000, compared to a gas-powered car’s US$25,000.
This year, ARK estimates EVs will cost about US$33,000 versus about US$24,000 for a conventional car.
“The biggest risk to ARK’s forecast is whether or not traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production,” the report concludes.