Opinion: Canada’s critical-minerals shortcut is old mines

The mantra “Canada has what the world needs” has circulated in different iterations for years, most recently adopted by Prime Minister Carney. But we cannot assume geology alone will result in outcomes. Our Achilles’ heel has never been a lack of resources; it has been our ability to execute with the pace and urgency required.

To our credit, Canada has had a strong run on critical minerals of late. At June’s G7 Leaders’ Summit, Ottawa broadened the Critical Minerals Resilience and Production Alliance, an initiative Canada itself stood up during its 2025 G7 presidency.

The alliance is now catalyzing $19.2 billion (US$13.9 billion) across 69 partnerships, with 13 new Canadian partnerships and initiatives expected to unlock more than $5 billion in capital spending across the domestic critical-minerals value chain.

Budget 2025 created a First and Last Mile Fund offering up to $1.5 billion in support, a $2-billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund and an expanded tax-credit mineral list. The Major Projects Office has also designated five nationally significant mining projects worth more than $11.6 billion. This is a government that has clearly decided critical minerals matter.

Canada’s execution gap

PwC’s newly released Mine 2026: Ambition to Action report recognizes Canada’s progress through the Critical Minerals Strategy, new funding and international partnerships.

But the title points to a challenge that has long defined Canada’s ability to deliver major projects: the valley of death between ambition and action. Crossing that divide will require, among other things, shorter permitting timelines and faster commercial production.

The report notes that it still takes roughly 20 years to permit and build a mine in Canada, six years longer than in Australia.

The world isn’t waiting. The International Energy Agency’s recently released Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 shows how tight the runway has become. Copper prices hit record highs, cobalt jumped roughly 130% after the Democratic Republic of Congo restricted exports, and lithium prices more than doubled.

Nickel, graphite and rare earths face their own supply pressures. Yet critical-minerals investment fell 9% in 2025, the first substantial decline in years, as price volatility and geopolitical risk made investors more cautious.

The IEA projects demand will nearly double by 2040, tightening supply exactly when the world needs more, faster, across nearly every mineral on the list.

The uncomfortable reality is that capital and permitting alone cannot overcome the timelines of mine development. Even under ideal conditions, a new large-scale mine takes at least five years from first shovel to first production, meaning projects approved today are unlikely to produce before the early 2030s.

New or “greenfield” development remains essential to Canada’s long-term position as a supplier and deserves continued support, but it cannot answer today’s shortage.

The brownfield advantage

There is, however, a lever the government already has at its disposal but has only partially used: expanding existing mines, or “brownfield” operations.

These sites already have what new projects spend a decade acquiring, including permits, roads, power, processing infrastructure, a trained workforce and established Indigenous partnerships.

Expanding an existing operation can bring additional production online in a fraction of the time because the hardest, slowest work is already done.

The tool to unlock this is sitting in plain sight: the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit.

This tax credit supports investment across the critical-minerals value chain, but its structure disproportionately rewards greenfield builds, where eligible equipment spending is concentrated. It doesn’t cover mine development expenses, the underground costs that make up the largest share of brownfield capital spending.

Strategic government support for activities such as shaft sinking, underground development, ventilation, electrification and dewatering would send an important signal to industry and help unlock expansion decisions at existing mine sites.

A fix already promised

This is a fixable gap, and one the government explicitly committed to addressing during the last federal election.

The Liberal platform promised to expand eligibility for this tax credit to include brownfield mine development expenses, yet that commitment was omitted from Budget 2025. It should be implemented without further delay, not quietly abandoned.

The case is about more than speed. Expanding brownfield production supports the smelters and refineries that depend on steady ore feedstock to remain competitive, while improving the viability of downstream investments.

As the recent IEA report also notes, Canada’s opportunity isn’t only to produce more resources, but to move further down the value chain through greater capacity in processing, refining, manufacturing and recycling.

Because these tax credits are earned only against capital companies are already investing, they are not a subsidy or a speculative use of public funds. They are an incentive tied to real or imminent investment.

Mining firms rank projects globally, and even a modest return improvement can decide whether an expansion is sanctioned here or lost to another jurisdiction.

Canada has built an impressive scaffolding around critical-minerals policy. Between sovereign funds, major-project designations, G7 initiatives, NATO commitments and bilateral MOUs from Italy to Indonesia, we have greatly improved our approach over the last few years. All of it deserves applause.

But none of it changes the physics of building a new mine. If Ottawa wants more production in the next two or three years, not the next 20, the fastest, lowest-risk path runs through mines that already exist.

Expanding the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit to cover brownfield mine development is the fastest path from policy to production.

Bryan Detchou is senior director, natural resources, environment and sustainability for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.