Copper price, miners slide on Trump tariff doubts

Copper prices and U.S. miners plunged Thursday after Reuters reported the White House still hasn’t decided whether to impose tariffs on refined copper as officials weigh support for domestic production against higher costs for manufacturers and consumers.

Comex copper futures fell about 4.4% to $6.59 per lb. after reaching a record $6.89 a day earlier. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), the largest U.S. copper producer, dropped 7.2% to $70.78 as investors reassessed a tariff that had helped propel copper and mining shares higher.

At mid-Thursday in New York, Teck Resources (TSX, NYSE: TECK) had fallen about 6.8% to $65.54, Hudbay Minerals (TSX, NYSE: HBM) was down 7.7% at $26.60 and Rio Tinto (LSE, NYSE, ASX: RIO) had dropped 4.2% to $99.33. In London, Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO) fell 6.1% to £37.52 ($50.77).

The administration is continuing to consider ways to bring copper and other critical manufacturing back to the United States, a White House official told Reuters.

The hesitation exposes a problem for President Donald Trump’s push to rebuild the domestic copper industry. While tariffs could improve the economics of U.S. mines, smelters and refineries, they would also raise input costs for electrical equipment, vehicles, construction and other industries at a time when Washington is focused on affordability.

Duties

Trump last year stopped short of taxing refined copper when he imposed duties on semi-finished products such as pipes and wiring. His proclamation nevertheless left open a staged tariff of 15% on refined copper from Jan. 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. The Northern Miner previously reported that tariffs risk passing higher copper costs directly to U.S. consumers.

Expectations of the tariff have already distorted global copper flows. Traders have moved huge volumes into the U.S. in anticipation of duties, helping create one of the world’s largest copper stockpiles and tightening supplies elsewhere, Reuters reported.

The situation is in sharp contrast with that of China, the world’s largest copper consumer. China imported 382,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in August, the weakest August in six years. Imports during January through August totalled 3.3 million tonnes, down 6.7% from a year earlier, according to Mining.com.

Mine supply

Underlying mine supply is also tightening. World copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026, according to International Copper Study Group data cited by Mining.com, as a 2.6% decline in concentrate output outweighed a 4.3% increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning production.

Morgan Stanley, which entered the year expecting mine production to rise, now forecasts output will be flat to slightly lower in 2026, Mining.com reported. A decline would be the first annual contraction in global copper mine supply since 2017.

The U.S. remains particularly exposed. It imports roughly half the copper it consumes and has only two operating copper smelters, owned by Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto. Washington has been trying to accelerate domestic projects including Rio and BHP’s (ASX, LSE, NYSE: BHP) Resolution Copper project in Arizona. The Northern Miner reported in March that Resolution had cleared a long-running land hurdle.

For now, uncertainty itself is helping keep copper in U.S. warehouses. Unresolved tariff policy reduces the incentive for traders to move metal back into international markets, Sprott Asset Management minerals analyst Jacob White told Reuters.