Glencore cobalt output halves as Congo quotas bite

Glencore (LSE: GLEN), one of the world’s largest cobalt producers, reported a 52% drop in output during the first nine months of 2026 as export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo prompted it to defer converting more of the battery metal into saleable material.

The Swiss-based miner produced 13,700 tonnes of cobalt from its own operations through September, down from 28,500 tonnes a year earlier, Glencore said in its production update on Thursday. Third-quarter output fell 20% from the preceding quarter to 3,500 tonnes, missing BMO Capital Markets’ forecast by 31%.

Cobalt is increasingly being “retained in solution rather than processed into saleable hydroxide,” with “value expected to be realised as export regulations evolve,” Glencore said.

The strategy illustrates how Congo’s efforts to control cobalt supply are changing mining operations. Glencore is continuing to extract copper from mixed ores while deferring the final processing of some associated cobalt, leaving metal available for potential recovery later.

Cobalt restrictions

Glencore shares fell 1.9% to £5.31 in London on Thursday, valuing the company at about £62.4 billion (C$116.2 billion). The shares have traded between £3.32 and £7.07 over the past year.

Congo, the world’s dominant cobalt producer, suspended cobalt exports in February 2025 after prices slumped to nine-year lows. A quota system replaced the ban in October that year, with annual export limits covering 2026 and 2027.

The restrictions remain in place until at least the end of 2027, and Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda hold sufficient cobalt stocks to meet near-term export allocations, Glencore said.

Its African Copper division produced 11,600 tonnes of cobalt through September, down 56% year-on-year. Cobalt retained in solution is excluded from reported production.

Holding the metal in solution reduces near-term processing costs, Glencore said. The company did not disclose the volume retained or when it might be converted into saleable material.

Copper operations, meanwhile, delivered stronger results. Production from Glencore’s own operations rose 3% to 598,600 tonnes from 583,500 tonnes a year earlier. Excluding the closure of Mount Isa’s copper mine and the sale of Kidd, output increased 12% on a comparable basis.

Higher mining rates and improved grades at African Copper, together with richer ore at Peru’s Antamina mine, offset weaker production at Antapaccay and Collahuasi.

Glencore aims to produce about 1.6 million tonnes of copper annually by 2035, nearly double this year’s forecast, under its growth plans.

Production outlook

The company maintained its 2026 copper guidance of 810,000–870,000 tonnes, although it expects to finish towards the bottom of that range. Steelmaking coal output is also tracking towards the lower end of its 30 million–32 million-tonne target, while zinc and energy coal are expected near the upper ends of their forecasts.

Quarterly production was slightly below expectations overall, with copper and steelmaking coal missing BMO’s estimates by 3% and 7%, respectively, analyst Alexander Pearce wrote on Thursday. Zinc and thermal coal exceeded his forecasts by 4% and 5%.

The full-year outlook remained broadly consistent with BMO’s forecasts, suggesting the quarterly shortfalls should unwind in the final three months of 2026, Pearce said.

Steelmaking coal production declined 13% to 21.5 million tonnes through September, primarily because of lower plant throughput and yields at Elk Valley Resources in British Columbia. Energy coal output edged up to 73.9 million tonnes from 73.5 million tonnes a year earlier.

Glencore also advanced the restart of its South African ferrochrome smelters, bringing Boshoek back online in September and Wonderkop in October, following the earlier restart of Lion. Attributable ferrochrome production climbed 29% from the second quarter.

The company reiterated its forecast for full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes from its marketing business to exceed $5 billion (about C$7 billion).

“We are pleased to report a strong third quarter production performance, where our key assets largely performed in line with expectations and previously communicated guidance,” CEO Gary Nagle said.