BHP now expects nearly 2M tonnes copper production after record Escondida throughput 

BHP (NYSE, LSE, ASX: BHP) reinforced confidence in its fiscal 2026 outlook on Wednesday, with solid copper and iron ore performance underpinning expectations that production targets will be met.

In BHP’s operational review for the nine months to March 31, CEO Mike Henry pointed to record material mined and concentrator throughput at Escondida and all-time high production at its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations.

The world’s largest miner now expects full-year production to land in the upper half of its 1.9–2 million tonne guidance range, thanks to increased production at Antamina in Peru offsetting poorer performance at Spence in Chile.  

“BHP has delivered an in-line fiscal third quarter overall, with iron ore and copper production as expected, while met coal was a touch below but thermal coal higher (-6/+12%),” BMO Capital Markets mining analyst Alexander Pearce said in a note on Wednesday.

“Positively, negotiations with CMRG [China’s centralized iron ore- buying body] have concluded, which acted as a modest overhang recently. Elsewhere, minor positive tightening of production guidance to ‘upper half’ in copper and thermal coal, and minor cash cost changes.”

Escondida

At Escondida, record throughput and improved recoveries offset lower grades, keeping production guidance at 1.2–1.275 million tonnes and skewed toward the upper end. Antamina has exceeded expectations, with the forecast lifted to 150,000 to 160,000 tonnes on improved grades and operational efficiency. However, weaker performance at Spence, where ore complexity continues to weigh on output, has led to a reduced outlook of 210,000–220,000 tonnes.

BHP’s copper pipeline is making progress with the company submitting a permit application for a new concentrator at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine the Melbourne-based company co-owns with Rio Tinto (NYSE, LSE, ASX: RIO).

During the quarter, BHP flagged progress at the Resolution project, a decades-in-the-making mine slated to become one of the largest U.S. sources of copper. Its partner on the Arizona venture, Rio Tinto, has embarked on a $500-million drilling campaign to delineate the deposit.

BHP is also re-engaging with Africa with a focus on copper after years of absence, launching exploration workshops across southern Africa, covering Zambia, South Africa, Namibia and Angola.

Record iron ore

Iron ore production, BHP’s largest earnings driver, rose 2% to 197 million tonnes, with full-year guidance unchanged at 258–269 million tonnes. Record output at WAIO, supported by improved rail and port performance, has kept operations on track despite cyclone-related disruptions during the quarter.

At Samarco in Brazil, output has rebounded strongly, with production now expected at the top end of its 7–7.5 million tonne forecast range.

Coal operations were more mixed. Metallurgical coal is expected to fall in the lower half of its 18–20 million tonne guidance range, reflecting heavy rainfall and operational challenges, while energy coal is tracking toward the upper half of its 14–16 million tonne outlook.

Cost pressures

Cost pressures remain elevated across the sector, particularly for diesel and consumables, but BHP said its centralized procurement and low-cost operations have helped mitigate the impact. Henry noted the company is “positioned advantageously in the face of industry-wide pressure,” even as conflict in the Middle East push up input costs.

The balance sheet has also been bolstered by recent transactions to extract value from non-core assets. BHP realized about $4.8 billion from a combination of the Antamina silver streaming deal and the divestment of Carajás, alongside proceeds from earlier asset sales. 

The update comes ahead of a leadership transition, with Brandon Craig set to take over as CEO from July 1.

BHP closed 1.2% higher in Sydney on Wednesday at A$56.17 for a market capitalization of A$285 billion (US$204 billion). It’s the world’s most valuable mining stock.

BHP has ranked first in the MINING.COM Top 50 ranking since its formation in 2001 through a merger with South Africa’s Billiton, and is the only mining firm ever to have spent time above the $200-billion valuation level. The stock is up 23% so far this year.