In the years to come, all forms of energy will be required: renewables, fossil and nuclear. I believe that one form of energy will emerge as indispensable if we are to meet our growing demand for energy without destroying the environment that sustains us. The one — it should come as no surprise — is nuclear.
At Cameco we have set our vision accordingly, and that vision is to become a dominant nuclear energy company, producing uranium fuel and generating clean electricity. Why? Because the world is rediscovering the benefits of nuclear energy, and so are investors. Nuclear energy is no longer in the proverbial woodshed. It has been recognized as safe, reliable, affordable and, most importantly, environmentally sustainable. The urgency of the energy and environmental challenges we face makes the pursuit of this vision compelling.
Today, some 440 nuclear power reactors generate 16% of the world’s electricity.
These reactors avoid the emission of over 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually and large quantities of toxic air pollutants. With global energy demand steadily rising, we will require hundreds of new nuclear power plants by mid-century, producing not only electricity but clean water and, most likely, hydrogen.
Our environmentalist “friends” have been slow to recognize the necessity of nuclear energy to ensure a sustainable future for our planet. But they are acutely aware, and have helped to build awareness, of the crisis we face. What environmentalists have not provided is a reasoned response to the crisis. Rather than a coherent strategy, they give us wishful thinking and windmills. The global environmental crisis demands that we discard preconceptions and ideology, assess our options carefully and build a feasible, science-based plan for collective action.
James Lovelock, an esteemed scientist and an icon of the global environmental movement, was among the first to sound the alarm over climate change and publicly urged a massive expansion of nuclear energy to limit greenhouse gas emissions. He warns that we are approaching a level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that will be a “tipping point” when warming becomes irreversible and civilization is threatened. The problem and the solution are clear. In the next 50 years, as the global population grows to 9 billion, human needs will multiply. As nations try to address this need, world energy consumption will double or even triple. We will use more energy than in all previous history combined.
According to the International Energy Agency’s 2004 World Energy Outlook, unless we curb greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are expected to double between 2002 and 2030.
And they will continue to rise thereafter, risking a severe destabilization of the global climate.
To stabilize greenhouse gases, our emissions of carbon must be restrained far beyond Kyoto’s meagre effort. And no aspect of sustainable development is more fundamental than the need to shift to clean energy technologies. Our need for clean energy on the scale required cannot be met without increased use of nuclear power. Nuclear power is the quintessential sustainable development technology because:
– its fuel will be available for centuries;
– its safety record is superior among major energy sources;
– its consumption causes virtually no air pollution;
– its use preserves fossil resources for future generations; and
– its costs are competitive and its minuscule solid waste can be securely managed over the long-term.
There is a growing need for sustainable base-load power to feed an energy-hungry world. I am confident that nuclear energy will fill that need.
Security of supply
Development of nuclear power requires a long-term view. Cameco’s crown jewels, Cigar Lake and McArthur River, discovered in 1981 and 1988 respectively, were the last major uranium discoveries made in the world. Why? Quite simply, it wasn’t worthwhile for exploration companies to look for uranium. Uranium prices were too low, depressed by decades of inventory liquidation. Looking at the uranium market, demand has outstripped production since 1985. Today, world consumption is about 180 million lbs. annually. In contrast, annual production is hovering around 100 million lbs. The shortfall has been covered by civilian and military inventories and, to a limited extent, recycled products.
A robust and successful international exploration effort will be essential to accelerate the discovery and development of new uranium resources, which nuclear utilities will need in the coming decades — not just for existing plants but for the next generation of efficient low-cost reactors. Exploration activity has traditionally followed trends in price, and right now is a good time to be a uranium producer. Over the past two years, the spot price for uranium has increased to more than US$35 per lb. from US$9.70 per lb. These higher prices have given junior exploration companies the opportunity to dust off old uranium projects. But chasing existing projects is not enough. We need to open up new areas, develop new geological models and invest increasing dollars if meaningful discoveries are to be made. Uranium is an abundant element, 40 times more common than silver. Little exploration has been done since the 1970s, so there is plenty of exploration potential.
Anticipation of growth
The value of uranium discovered, and yet to be discovered, could be magnified many times over by emerging technologies such as hydrogen. Hydrogen technology offers a means to store enormous quantities of electricity that can be used on demand, in clean-powered transportation, and in homes and industry. But hydrogen’s environmental value is dependent upon the generation of clean energy. Only nuclear can provide this on a vast scale. Hydrogen can extend nuclear’s clean air benefit. It can serve as a framework for a thriving, large-scale, emissions-free industrial economy. The father of the hydrogen fuel cell, Geoffrey Ballard, sees a future in which nuclear energy powers the hydrogen economy. For four consecutive decades, nuclear power has been one of the fastest growing major energy sources in the world, and today:
– 31 nations representing more than 60% of humanity have nuclear power;
– important nations representing another half-billion people are planning to use it;
– nations representing nearly half of the world’s population are building nuclear power plants; and
– the U.S. nuclear industry, owners of the world’s largest nuclear fleet, plans 50% growth over the next 20 years.
The price and geopolitics of oil can only accelerate these trends. The essential issue about nuclear power is not whether it will grow, but how fast. Will it grow fast enough to meet the world’s urgent need for clean energy? And will exploration for uranium keep pace?
The great George Orwell described human existence as a “race between education and catastrophe.” As a civilization, we face the danger of ruining the biosphere
that supports all living things. With nuclear energy, we have the tools we need to avert that threat. So, get those exploration drills ready.
— The preceding is an edited excerpt from Mining Review, a publication of the Vancouver-based Association for Mineral Exploration British Columbia (AME BC). The speech was originally presented at the 2005 Mineral Exploration Roundup in Vancouver.
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