UBS lifts 2026 gold price outlook on US risks

Analysts at UBS have lifted their gold price targets for next year in anticipation of higher safe-haven demand from persistent U.S. macroeconomic risks and de-dollarization.

During the March quarter, the Swiss bank now sees gold averaging $3,600 an oz. — $100 higher than its previous forecast for the period as well as its current forecast for year-end 2025. For June and September 2026, gold prices are expected to rise even further, averaging $3,700 an oz. for both periods.

UBS says the revised gold forecasts reflect its expectations of robust demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks, coupled with a global shift towards bullion as the preferred reserve asset as the global shift away from using the U.S dollar in trade and reserves continues.

“We see U.S. macro-related risks, questions over Fed independence, worries about fiscal sustainability, and geopolitics underpinning de-dollarization trends and more central bank buying,” UBS analysts wrote in a note. “In our view, these factors will drive gold prices even higher.”

Central banks

The same factors have driven gold to unprecedented levels this year, including a record high of $3,500 an oz. in April, as demand for the safe-haven metal spiked during the ongoing global trade war. Central banks, in particular, have continued to accumulate gold and are tracking towards another year of 1,000 tonnes in purchases despite rising prices, which have risen nearly 28% to date.

“Central bank purchases should stay strong, albeit slightly below last year’s near-record purchases,” UBS says. “We, therefore, now forecast global gold demand to increase by 3% to 4.76 billion tonnes in 2025, which would mark the highest level since 2011.”

This increase, the bank adds, would reinforce gold’s position as a leading asset in 2025.

Earlier this month, Citi raised its short-term outlook on gold, with a target price of between $3,300 and $3,600 an oz. over the next three months on tariff-related inflation concerns.