Potash miners drop as Trump floats Belarus deal

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday the United States is working on a “massive” deal to buy potash from Belarus instead of Canada, raising questions about potential ramifications for fertilizer prices.

Saskatoon-based Nutrien (TSX, NYSE: NTR) fell 3.3% to $74.59 in late afternoon U.S. trading, valuing the company at about $37 billion (C$52 billion). Tampa-based Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), which has sizeable operations in Saskatchewan, dropped 1.4% to $24.14 for a market capitalization of $7.7 billion, while U.S.-focused Intrepid Potash fell 1.1% to $37.08 for a $499 million value.

Diversified global miner BHP (NYSE, LSE, ASX: BHP), which is developing the $15.3 billion Jansen potash mine in Saskatchewan, slipped 0.3% in U.S. trading to $86.12. It has a market value of about $221 billion.

U.S. potash purchases from Belarus “would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our farmers and ranchers,” Trump said Monday in a post on Truth Social. He provided no details on the potential volume, timing, delivery arrangements or parties involved in the transaction.

“Unless Belarusian potash were to displace Canadian potash in significant quantities, we think any mix-shift impact to realized prices would be moderate,” RBC Dominion Securities mining analyst Andrew Wong said in a note. Global potash markets are “moderately tight,” he said.

“We do not see any significant material impact to potash producers (Nutrien, Mosaic) while nitrogen-related equities (CF Industries, LSB Industries) do not produce potash,” Wong added. He called the share-price declines “overdone.”

Trade dispute

Trump’s comments come amid an increasingly acrimonious trade dispute with Canada, its neighbour and biggest trade partner. Both countries have imposed import tariffs on each other – though Canadian potash has so far managed to escape U.S. levies.

In late March, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control removed Belarus-based producers Belaruskali and Belarusian Potash Company from its sanctions list. Until those sanctions were imposed in 2021, the U.S. had historically imported between 500,000 and 1 million tonnes of Belarusian potash a year, Wong said.

With 2024 output of 7.1 million tonnes according to the U.S. Geological Survey, Belarus was the world’s fourth-largest producer of the fertilizer, accounting for about 11% of global supply. That same year, it exported about 6.4 million tonnes.

Canada is the biggest supplier of potash to the U.S., which is heavily dependent on imports. Canada accounted for 79% of U.S. potash import sources from 2021 to 2024, followed by Russia at 12%, according to USGS data.      

Canada’s dominant position in the U.S. market gives its producers a logistical advantage, Wong said. Canadian suppliers also receive a slight U.S. price premium.

Belarus has recently been working to restore commercial ties with Western markets. China accounted for 29% of the country’s 2024 potash exports, USGS data show.