Haywood cuts gold forecasts but miners attractive

Haywood Securities has cut its near-term gold and silver price forecasts after a weaker second quarter but says the pullback has created an attractive entry point into precious-metals equities ahead of earnings season.

The Vancouver-based brokerage lowered its U.S. dollar 2026 gold price forecast to an average of $4,345 per oz. from $4,906 in March and reduced its 2027 forecast to $4,000 from $5,000. It also cut its 2026 silver forecast to $67.11 per oz. from $73.40 and lowered longer-term platinum and palladium assumptions.

“We remain constructive on gold equities heading into earnings season and view the recent selloff as a period of consolidation within an ongoing bull market in precious metals, as key structural drivers including central bank accumulation, de-dollarization and elevated global debt levels remain in place,” Haywood’s mining analysis team said.

Gold fell 14% in the second quarter as higher bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking weighed on prices after a sharp rally through late 2025 and early 2026. Gold equities underperformed bullion, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) falling 18% during the quarter.

Even so, Haywood said senior producers trade at 7.83 times next-12-month cash flow, below the five-year average of 8.86 times, while strong cash generation continues to support mergers and acquisitions as producers replace depleted reserves.

Top producers

Despite trimming its commodity deck, the brokerage maintained its bullish stance on several miners and named Equinox Gold (TSX, NYSE-A: EQX) its top producer pick. It said the pending merger with Orla Mining (TSX: OLA; NYSE: ORLA) would create a North America-focused producer with output of about 1.1 million oz. annually and a pipeline capable of lifting production towards 2 million oz. by 2031.

Among developers, Haywood’s top picks are First Mining Gold (TSX: FF), Thesis Gold & Silver (TSXV: TAU) and Troilus Mining (TSX: TLG). It raised First Mining’s target price to $1.75 from $1.25 after the Springpole project received federal environmental approval, calling it a significant de-risking milestone.

“Recent M&A activity has shortened the list of quality gold development projects in Canada, further enhancing Springpole’s strategic appeal,” Haywood said. “First Mining offers a unique value proposition through its multi-track approach to value creation, combining a nearly fully permitted flagship asset in Springpole with a strong secondary asset in Duparquet which would be a company maker for most junior mining companies in its own right.”

Thesis

Thesis’ appeal has been enhanced by a December 2025 prefeasibility study “that outlined a low-cost, long-life gold silver project for its Lawyers Ranch project in B.C.’s exciting Toodoggone district,” Haywood said. “The study has delivered Lawyers Ranch as one of the few top-tier development projects in Canada and globally.”

Troilus, expected to produce 303,000 oz. gold-equivalent annually, is advancing through engineering, financing and permitting towards a construction decision, with final permits expected in the first quarter of 2027. The brokerage estimates an after-tax net present value at a 5% discount of around $5.3 billion and an internal rate of return of roughly 29%.

“The project benefits from substantial existing site, power and transportation infrastructure at the past-producing operation, as well as a secured 70 MW power allocation, reducing the scope of new-build requirements,” Haywood said. “These inputs are expected to be incorporated into the updated feasibility Study targeted for this year’s fourth quarter through a more defined capital estimate and optimized mine plan.”

Haywood’s revised gold price outlook prompted lower target prices for several producers, including Alamos Gold (TSX, NYSE: AGI), Equinox and Amex Gold Mining (TSXV: AMX; US-OTC: AMXEF). First Mining was the notable exception, with its higher target price driven by permitting progress rather than commodity prices.

Earnings outlook

Looking ahead to second-quarter earnings, Haywood expects strong results across much of its coverage despite lower realized gold prices than in the first quarter.

The brokerage forecasts cash flow per share of 63¢ for Alamos, 38¢ for Equinox and 4¢ for Americas Gold and Silver (TSX: USA), while estimating earnings per share of 82¢ for Artemis Gold (TSXV: ARTG).

Haywood also projects adjusted cash flow per share of US4¢ for Contango Silver & Gold (NYSE-A: CTGO), 4¢ for Luca Mining (TSXV: LUCA) and earnings per share of 7¢ for B2Gold (TSX, NYSE-A: BTO), with the first wave of precious-metals producers set to report in the coming weeks.