Vale cuts production guidance again

Vale's Goro nickel mine on the island of New Caledonia, a special collectivity of France, in the southwest Pacific Ocean. Credit: Vale Vale's Goro nickel mine on the island of New Caledonia, a special collectivity of France, in the southwest Pacific Ocean. Credit: Vale

Brazil’s Vale (NYSE: VALE), the world’s top iron ore producer, has once again lowered its production forecast for 2020 due to a mix of factors including heavy rain, unplanned outages at a major operation, regulatory delays linked to last year’s dam failure at Brumadinho, and ongoing disruptions to logistics caused by the coronavirus.

Vale now expects to produce between 310 million and 330 million tonnes iron ore fines this year, down from the 340 million to 355 million it had forecast earlier.

Iron ore fines production in the first three months of the year hit 59.6 million tonnes, below the already revised forecast 63 to 68 million tonnes, mostly due to unscheduled maintenance on the long-distance conveyor belt at its flagship S11D mine. Sales volumes over the past three months were even weaker at 51.6 million tonnes, 33% lower than in the last quarter of 2019.

In addition, the company, which is also the world’s top nickel miner, axed its 2020 production forecast for the metal to 180,000 to 195,000 tonnes from 200,000 to 210,000 tonnes, excluding its unit in New Caledonia.

Nickel prices climbed to their highest in more than a month on the London Metal Exchange (LME) following the news, hitting US$12,440 per tonne.

“Vale’s cut to production has supported the [nickel] market, but mines closing production is not too new as we knew some mines would shut,” said Commerzbank analyst, Daniel Briesemann. “The negative impact of the virus is more severe for the demand side, and the market could be well oversupplied this year.”

Vale also lowered its copper guidance from 400,000 tonnes to between 360,000 and 380,000 tonnes.

— This article first appeared in our sister publication, MINING.com.

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